Monday, July 29, 2013

Imagine What Will Come Next...



As scientists it’s our job to imagine. Paleontologists imagine what long-dead critters looked like while staring at piles of bones, feathers, skin, scales, spikes, claws and teeth. Biologists imagine while staring at a spotted salamander and a striped salamander and thinking of the ways the two ended up that way. Geologists imagine while looking at mountain ranges, thinking of a time when those mountains did not exist and the uproar they likely caused when they rose oh those many millions of years ago.


We have a lock-down on imagination, but seemingly only when it comes to the past. You may argue prediction or extrapolation (or physicists), which does play a large role in science, but it’s not the science that is stuck in the now and the past - it’s the scientists.


Biologists - paleontologists - geologists banding together to preserve one thing or another (no, I’m not saying this is bad, merely illustrating a point). Global temperatures are rising and the polar bears are going extinct. Yes - mankind has altered the evolution of this planet, but that doesn’t mean that the planet will STOP EVOLVING. We have pushed the CO2 levels to heights that haven’t been seen since the Eocene (55 million years ago). However, the planet has been well around 400 ppm (parts per million) of CO2 in the past and life didn’t end. Not all living things survived mind you, but LIFE ITSELF did not stop. Mammals didn't go extinct.


The mammalia has been around for almost 200 million years. Our class has survived countless warming and cooling cycles and while we have helped accelerate this particular warming cycle, our class will still be around to see what happens.


Just imagine what it will be like when the Arctic region is dotted with forests and blanketed with ferns. Ferns which even float in colonies across the surface of the Bering sea due to the warmth of the water. Imaging the life that will evolve in these new landscapes.


Imagine not having to delve into the PAST to see these creatures. Imagine that you are the continuation of our Homo genus - perhaps even a new subspecies. Much like your ancestors studied the life that lived in their time you can study the life that lives in your time. The caveat is that you will be using THEIR discoveries as a foundation for your own. Much like we’ve used hundreds of scientists’ findings over the years you will instead be studying Dawkins instead of Darwin, and Bakker instead of Marsh.


You will dig up fossils of an extinct species of bear known as Ursus meritimus; the polar bear. you will do this while geologically and paleontologically exploring a world that was once a frozen tundra. You can directly compare your research and findings to actual work from back in 2013 where it was pioneered. Looking back into the past for you won’t be something that needs to be newly defined or unknown. You may not run into a situation where you don’t have 100% of the evidence and therefore have to speculate about this ancient Arctic environment. You can go to universities or museums and pick up ancient writings of Encyclopedia Britannica or search old internet databases for early writings such as the journal of the Ecological Society of America or PlosOne’s online databases.


Yes things will change. And right now things are changing. We’re seeing species become pressured by the change. While we are a part of that change - it’s still a change that we should respect. There’s no going back now - this planet will get warmer before it gets cooler, we can’t stop it. Especially if we keep helping it. Yes we can be more energy efficient in the future; yes we can learn from our mistakes. Yes, we should do ALL of these things!


Can we save Ursus maritimus? Likely not. They aren’t meant for a warm world and that’s where we’re headed, like it or not. They didn’t evolve into a landscape of green ferns and forests so thick that it’s hard for large animals to walk through. And you know what? That’s okay. Something else will fill the niche that the polar bear leaves behind. Something else will become the top predator of the Arctic forests.


Think of the life that will evolve and the exploration that our descendants will get to do. We see the change now - we see the life ending, but that’s never been the case for any other species on this planet. We are unique in our view of this world. No other species has contemplated the extinction of other species, let alone document those extinctions. In some cases, such as with the newly declared extinction of the Western Black Rhino, we should be ashamed of ourselves. And yes, we can have a little bit of shame knowing that we’ve accelerated the warming of this planet. But the warming trend was already present and these animals would have had to deal with this sooner or later.


I’m not saying this as an excuse to quit animal and environmental conservation. I’m not saying this and advocating less efficient uses of power and energy. We can definitely do better and I believe we ARE doing better. However we still have a long way to go and while we expect life to go with us as we learn we need to understand that not ALL life will go with us and that we’re a part of the life on this planet.

In the span of geologic time we are but a blip on the radar. Life has existed before us and continue to exist after us. The planet has cooled and warmed time and time again and will continue to do so until the sun explodes. The difference here is that some genus of Homo out there will be able to document it while using notes and references to things that happened TODAY. Our research will be the foundation of their study be it in 500 or 1,000 or even a million years from now. Take heart in knowing that what we’ve studied today cannot ever be forgotten. That includes our mistakes and our triumphs.

Artwork Copyright: Denver Museum of Nature and Science

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